timwest

timwest Wizard

Here is the way that I view any stock for an initial analysis to get an idea of what the market is valuing and viewing the company. I first look at the free cash flow, so that is directly under the price chart. Free cash flow is the life-blood of the company and can be used to pay dividends and to reinvest in the company to grow the top line or to buy back...

timwest Wizard

The 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as...

timwest Wizard

I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom. The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames. There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us...

timwest Wizard

In case you are wondering if the drop in the $USDOL TVC:DXY US Dollar of 10% from a high is a sign of something major going on in the stock market, it reminded me of research I did right when I got out of college in 1987. Here's a quick overview of that pattern of TVC:DXY declines of 10% against the backdrop of SP:SPX or S&P500 Index declines at that time....

timwest Wizard

I included 2024's guess that I posted here in January last year which turned out to be quite accurate in terms of "action" and "direction". The volatility the market saw with wild swings back and forth was outlined on here as we reached the clusters of guesses from Wall Street estimates. This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is a ratio chart of the Russell 2000 Index etf called AMEX:IWM and the Nasdaq Composite Index etf called $QQQ. The NASDAQ:QQQ returns over the past 7+ years have been extraordinary while the AMEX:IWM has been stagnant at best and hasn't beaten inflation. That ratio of performance has just turned in a way that suggests the AMEX:IWM will outperform...

timwest Wizard

When OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) does well relative to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold), it means the economy is strong and interest rates tend to rise when that happens. The opposite is also true. When Silver is weak relative to Gold, interest rates tend to fall. See how it works historically? The 1997 drop in rates when the silver/gold ratio shot up is the rare...

timwest Wizard

On September 9th with oil dropping down to $68 from $84 back in July I pointed out that there was support down in that zone from what I call the "SPR REFILL LEVEL". A month later in early October the price of crude oil had rebounded to $76-$78 and the highest daily low reached $74.51 and the highest high was $78.43. Pretty volatile price action in one of the...

timwest Wizard

Here is a ratio chart of Gold OANDA:XAUUSD and Crude Oil $USOIL. Historically you can see it goes to extremes. Especially in 2020 when crude oil went to zero (and negative). I cut that spike out of the chart so hopefully it shows here. When the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009 hit, crude oil hit $140 and gold was low which set up the bottom of this chart...

timwest Wizard

The REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term. Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound...

timwest Wizard

If you use the great EARNINGS indicator here on TradingView you can quickly see how volatile stocks have been on their EARNINGS report looking back many years very quickly and visually by seeing how big the EARNINGS TRIANGLE is. When we look at NASDAQ:ADBE you can see it gaps a LOT on earnings and has done so the last two quarters as shown with the big green...

timwest Wizard

The politically motivated push to depress oil prices and drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve created a PRICE LEVEL in the crude oil market which has proven twice to have strong overhead resistance. The FLIP-SIDE of that SPR DRAIN LEVEL is that SPR-REFILL LEVEL and we are down low enough where it makes sense to strategically refill our lost petroleum...

timwest Wizard

NASDAQ:AAPL is already IN a weekly downtrend. NASDAQ:AAPL is below the mode since the high NASDAQ:AAPL peaked 7 weeks ago NASDAQ:AAPL had a weekly range expansion down this week to trigger a sell signal NASDAQ:AAPL had a RESZ rally into 50-75% resistance this week after RgExp down Stop loss $226, downside $195 I also labeled Warren Buffett's sale of...

timwest Wizard

SKEW is a measure of options prices in the S&P500 Index that divides the options volatilities of puts/calls. How to use the CBOE:SKEW Index gets a bit more cloudy since it isn't always clear or perfect in its "signal generation". But I think it is important to know what it is showing so you can at least decide what the general sentiment and positioning is in...

timwest Wizard

This chart says it all. The biggest destruction of wealth that I have witnessed in my professional life. Bigger than the real estate melt-down in the GFC. Bigger than the S&L crisis and bailout. Bigger than the stock market crashes of 1987, 1990, 2003, 2008, 2020 and 2023. Enjoy the upside run! Tim 92.99 last NASDAQ:TLT

timwest Wizard Updated 

Going along with my usual 'Key Hidden Levels' in the markets perspective that NEWS is an important price level to mark on charts so it is visible to everyone, I have created the update to the "Rate Hiking Cycle" chart. The purple triangles and lines are the range of the day of the announcement and the mid-point of the day plotted horizontally forward. With this...

timwest Wizard

Many years ago I had drawn this 1.7-1.3 level in the PSR (or Price-to-Sales Ratio) for NYSE:NKE and the recent smack down for NYSE:NKE stock has put it within reach of the 1.7-1.3 X Sales zone. The RETURN for shareholders has been negative for the last 7 years in NYSE:NKE when adjusted for inflation. The stock is basically unchanged back to 2018 here (not...