NZD/JPY Breaks Wedge Structure – Bearish Setup Targets 82.42
NZD/JPY has broken down from a rising wedge and failed to reclaim upper support, now acting as resistance. The structure is cleanly bearish on the 4H chart, with rejection near 85.60 and a confirmed lower high. Weak New Zealand data and rising safe-haven demand for JPY add weight to this technical setup. Price looks poised to extend toward 82.42 and possibly 80.99 if momentum builds. Bearish bias is valid unless price closes above 87.17.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Pattern: Rising wedge → broken → retest failed
Bear Flag: Forming below wedge base, suggesting further downside
Resistance Area: 85.60–87.17
Bearish Structure:
Lower highs and bearish candle formations
Price unable to reclaim former support trendline
Support Targets:
First TP: 84.00 – minor support, fib confluence
Second TP: 82.42 – March swing low
Final TP: 81.00 zone – next fib cluster
🌍 Macro Fundamentals
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Retail Sales missed: 0.0% vs 0.9% forecast → consumer sector is slowing
Core Retail Sales weak: 0.7% vs 1.4%
Dairy auction (GDT Index) down -0.9% → key export underperforming
Implication: Risk of slower growth → RBNZ may shift toward neutral/dovish stance
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY)
JPY supported by risk-off flows due to:
U.S. credit downgrade
Iran-US nuclear tension
Declining global PMI forecasts
Yen strengthens as traders seek safe havens despite BoJ’s dovish baseline
🎯 Trade Plan
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: 85.50–85.60 (confirmation area)
Targets:
TP1: 84.00
TP2: 82.42
TP3: 81.00
Stop Loss: Above 87.17 (invalidates wedge breakdown)
⚠️ What to Watch
China sentiment or surprise stimulus (may support NZD)
Sharp equity rallies (could reduce JPY demand short-term)
If NZD/JPY closes above 86.00, reduce position or stay out
🧭 Conclusion
NZD/JPY has rolled over from a broken rising wedge, now forming a clean bearish continuation structure. Weak NZ data and macro risk flows into JPY favor downside extension. This setup offers clear levels, defined risk, and macro alignment — ideal for disciplined short entries.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Pattern: Rising wedge → broken → retest failed
Bear Flag: Forming below wedge base, suggesting further downside
Resistance Area: 85.60–87.17
Bearish Structure:
Lower highs and bearish candle formations
Price unable to reclaim former support trendline
Support Targets:
First TP: 84.00 – minor support, fib confluence
Second TP: 82.42 – March swing low
Final TP: 81.00 zone – next fib cluster
🌍 Macro Fundamentals
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Retail Sales missed: 0.0% vs 0.9% forecast → consumer sector is slowing
Core Retail Sales weak: 0.7% vs 1.4%
Dairy auction (GDT Index) down -0.9% → key export underperforming
Implication: Risk of slower growth → RBNZ may shift toward neutral/dovish stance
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY)
JPY supported by risk-off flows due to:
U.S. credit downgrade
Iran-US nuclear tension
Declining global PMI forecasts
Yen strengthens as traders seek safe havens despite BoJ’s dovish baseline
🎯 Trade Plan
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: 85.50–85.60 (confirmation area)
Targets:
TP1: 84.00
TP2: 82.42
TP3: 81.00
Stop Loss: Above 87.17 (invalidates wedge breakdown)
⚠️ What to Watch
China sentiment or surprise stimulus (may support NZD)
Sharp equity rallies (could reduce JPY demand short-term)
If NZD/JPY closes above 86.00, reduce position or stay out
🧭 Conclusion
NZD/JPY has rolled over from a broken rising wedge, now forming a clean bearish continuation structure. Weak NZ data and macro risk flows into JPY favor downside extension. This setup offers clear levels, defined risk, and macro alignment — ideal for disciplined short entries.
Trade active
NZDJPY +99 PIPS RUNNING. 
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🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.