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comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target above 65 is obviously 70 and maybe even the bigger bear trend line around 73.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 59 - 65
bull case: Bulls got their first daily close above the weekly20 ema since February. Bears tried to get the market below 60 but failed to keep it below - 3 times now since April. Markets will try one thing only so much until they try something else. 65 is the next target which will likely get hit early next week but I expect a bit more sideways until one side clearly gives up. Technically this is a double bottom April/May lows and now a higher low and bulls want to get the major trend reversal.
Invalidation is below 65.5
bear case: Bears are hopeful that the bear wedge is still enough resistance that we test down to 60 but they need a strong reversal below 65 to make it happen and when a weekly bar closes at the very high, it’s probably not a good time to be a bear. Best bears can hope for here is to stay below 65 and continue inside the current range 60-65.
Invalidation is above 65.5
short term: Bullish. I think a bull breakout is much more likely than hitting 60 again. Buying 64.58 with a stop 59.5 is likely a decent trade already. Confirmation for the breakout is 65.5ish.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Market finds no acceptance below 60 since 2021 and now we have 3 clear legs down, a higher low and a breakout above prior high with a weekly close at the highs and the weekly 20ema. This is likely as good of a swing long as you can get.
comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target above 65 is obviously 70 and maybe even the bigger bear trend line around 73.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 59 - 65
bull case: Bulls got their first daily close above the weekly20 ema since February. Bears tried to get the market below 60 but failed to keep it below - 3 times now since April. Markets will try one thing only so much until they try something else. 65 is the next target which will likely get hit early next week but I expect a bit more sideways until one side clearly gives up. Technically this is a double bottom April/May lows and now a higher low and bulls want to get the major trend reversal.
Invalidation is below 65.5
bear case: Bears are hopeful that the bear wedge is still enough resistance that we test down to 60 but they need a strong reversal below 65 to make it happen and when a weekly bar closes at the very high, it’s probably not a good time to be a bear. Best bears can hope for here is to stay below 65 and continue inside the current range 60-65.
Invalidation is above 65.5
short term: Bullish. I think a bull breakout is much more likely than hitting 60 again. Buying 64.58 with a stop 59.5 is likely a decent trade already. Confirmation for the breakout is 65.5ish.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Market finds no acceptance below 60 since 2021 and now we have 3 clear legs down, a higher low and a breakout above prior high with a weekly close at the highs and the weekly 20ema. This is likely as good of a swing long as you can get.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.