Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Bitcoin’s been throwing curveballs this past week—did it leave you spinning? 😵 Still unsure if the bull run’s officially on, or hunting for the perfect altcoin entry? Don’t worry, in this recap, I’m laying it all out with clear reasoning to give you a crystal-clear view of the market and help you ditch those FOMO-driven decisions. Here at Skeptic Lab, we analyze Markets with one motto: No FOMO. No hype. Just reason. We’re not like others who panic over dumps or hype every pump—we’ve got risk management, stop losses, and we stay glued to the market’s pulse. Let’s dive into the Bitcoin Weekly Recap and unpack it all! 📊
Monthly Timeframe: The Big Picture
Let’s zoom out to the last three months. The 74,000 to 82,000 range has been a rock-solid support zone for Bitcoin, with heavy shadows every time we touch it. Big shadows like that scream potential trend reversal, and right now, Bitcoin’s major trend is firmly uptrend. Until we see a clear signal for a trend change, all that noise about Bitcoin crashing to 50K or “the bull run’s over” is pure nonsense. If you hear anyone making those bold future price predictions, run the other way! Our job isn’t to predict the future—it’s to map out scenarios and have a plan when they play out. Comparing the 2022 bear market to now is flat-out silly. Why? Back then, we’d already seen massive gains, but now, we haven’t had significant growth yet—altcoins are quiet, and total market volume hasn’t spiked. The end of a trend isn’t when everyone’s scared of losses; it’s when everyone’s dreaming of becoming a millionaire and the news is pumping FOMO. 😄 So, ignore those baseless analyses and let’s get to the real stuff.
Weekly Timeframe: Momentum Check
On the weekly chart, we kicked off a solid uptrend momentum, even hitting a new all-time high. Bears tried to jump in and sell, but here’s the catch: the previous ceiling hasn’t been technically broken yet, so we haven’t gotten a clear buy signal. Why? Because support and resistance levels aren’t static—they shift over time. The longer time passes, the higher or lower these levels move, and they need updating. Right now, we got rejected after testing the ceiling because our true resistance is still intact. So, when do we get confirmation? Let’s drop to the Daily Timeframe for clarity.
Daily Timeframe: Spot Trigger
After breaking 112,000, we’ll get the main confirmation that the last ceiling before the correction is broken, signaling the continuation of the major uptrend per Dow Theory. That’s our spot buy trigger—buy above 112,000 with a stop loss below 100,000, giving you a 10% stop loss size. Please, manage your capital so that if you hit the stop loss, you lose no more than 3% of your total capital. Staying alive in financial markets hinges on risk management. Now, let’s hit the 4-Hour Timeframe for long and short triggers.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
We had a solid upward trendline on the 4-hour chart, but it broke to the downside. When this happens, two scenarios are possible: either the uptrend’s slope has just softened with no trend change, or we’re entering a correction. My take? We’re likely heading for a time-based correction (think range-bound boxes). If we start ranging, don’t beat yourself up or pile into trades impulsively—win rates for most traders tank in range phases, and losing streaks pile up. For long positions, I suggest waiting for a break above 108,900. That’s where we got a strong rejection and pullback last time, so we need solid confirmation to go long since bearish momentum is stronger in this phase. For shorts, 105,000 was a good level, but the next short trigger is a break below support at 101,577. If we see a strong reaction at any level on this timeframe before that, you could short on a break there too. For breakout confirmation, indicators like SMA or RSI work, but volume is king. High volume on a break means it’s likely to continue; low volume screams fake breakout, so cut your risk there.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Altcoin Timing
Let’s wrap up with a quick look at BTC.D to figure out if it’s time to jump into altcoins. BTC.D shows Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap—the higher it is, the more liquidity flows into Bitcoin, often from altcoin sales. On the daily chart, we’re still above an upward trendline I mentioned in previous analyses, and altcoins haven’t made any real moves. When I say “moves,” I mean serious 100-500% or even 10,000% rallies, not just 10-20% pops. An altseason would be confirmed by a break of this trendline and a drop below support at 60.27. That’s when we’d expect massive altcoin gains, but it only works if Bitcoin’s already in a strong uptrend with solid market liquidity. Otherwise, don’t expect crazy altcoin pumps. The total market cap needs to be growing too for this to happen.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this recap sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for joining me at Skeptic Lab—let’s grow together with No FOMO. No hype. Just reason. Keep trading smart! <3✌️
Monthly Timeframe: The Big Picture
Let’s zoom out to the last three months. The 74,000 to 82,000 range has been a rock-solid support zone for Bitcoin, with heavy shadows every time we touch it. Big shadows like that scream potential trend reversal, and right now, Bitcoin’s major trend is firmly uptrend. Until we see a clear signal for a trend change, all that noise about Bitcoin crashing to 50K or “the bull run’s over” is pure nonsense. If you hear anyone making those bold future price predictions, run the other way! Our job isn’t to predict the future—it’s to map out scenarios and have a plan when they play out. Comparing the 2022 bear market to now is flat-out silly. Why? Back then, we’d already seen massive gains, but now, we haven’t had significant growth yet—altcoins are quiet, and total market volume hasn’t spiked. The end of a trend isn’t when everyone’s scared of losses; it’s when everyone’s dreaming of becoming a millionaire and the news is pumping FOMO. 😄 So, ignore those baseless analyses and let’s get to the real stuff.
Weekly Timeframe: Momentum Check
On the weekly chart, we kicked off a solid uptrend momentum, even hitting a new all-time high. Bears tried to jump in and sell, but here’s the catch: the previous ceiling hasn’t been technically broken yet, so we haven’t gotten a clear buy signal. Why? Because support and resistance levels aren’t static—they shift over time. The longer time passes, the higher or lower these levels move, and they need updating. Right now, we got rejected after testing the ceiling because our true resistance is still intact. So, when do we get confirmation? Let’s drop to the Daily Timeframe for clarity.
Daily Timeframe: Spot Trigger
After breaking 112,000, we’ll get the main confirmation that the last ceiling before the correction is broken, signaling the continuation of the major uptrend per Dow Theory. That’s our spot buy trigger—buy above 112,000 with a stop loss below 100,000, giving you a 10% stop loss size. Please, manage your capital so that if you hit the stop loss, you lose no more than 3% of your total capital. Staying alive in financial markets hinges on risk management. Now, let’s hit the 4-Hour Timeframe for long and short triggers.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
We had a solid upward trendline on the 4-hour chart, but it broke to the downside. When this happens, two scenarios are possible: either the uptrend’s slope has just softened with no trend change, or we’re entering a correction. My take? We’re likely heading for a time-based correction (think range-bound boxes). If we start ranging, don’t beat yourself up or pile into trades impulsively—win rates for most traders tank in range phases, and losing streaks pile up. For long positions, I suggest waiting for a break above 108,900. That’s where we got a strong rejection and pullback last time, so we need solid confirmation to go long since bearish momentum is stronger in this phase. For shorts, 105,000 was a good level, but the next short trigger is a break below support at 101,577. If we see a strong reaction at any level on this timeframe before that, you could short on a break there too. For breakout confirmation, indicators like SMA or RSI work, but volume is king. High volume on a break means it’s likely to continue; low volume screams fake breakout, so cut your risk there.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): Altcoin Timing
Let’s wrap up with a quick look at BTC.D to figure out if it’s time to jump into altcoins. BTC.D shows Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap—the higher it is, the more liquidity flows into Bitcoin, often from altcoin sales. On the daily chart, we’re still above an upward trendline I mentioned in previous analyses, and altcoins haven’t made any real moves. When I say “moves,” I mean serious 100-500% or even 10,000% rallies, not just 10-20% pops. An altseason would be confirmed by a break of this trendline and a drop below support at 60.27. That’s when we’d expect massive altcoin gains, but it only works if Bitcoin’s already in a strong uptrend with solid market liquidity. Otherwise, don’t expect crazy altcoin pumps. The total market cap needs to be growing too for this to happen.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this recap sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for joining me at Skeptic Lab—let’s grow together with No FOMO. No hype. Just reason. Keep trading smart! <3✌️
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.